[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2567 (N06W60, Dko/beta) underwent some decay as it decreased penumbral areal coverage in both leader and trailer spots. The regions magnetic gradient loosened, but remained moderately strong, and some shear still existed near the center of the group. The region remained unstable and produced a pair of C-class flares; the largest being a C6/Sf at 22/0651 UTC. Region 2565 (N04W69, Hkx/alpha) changed little and remained inactive. Region 2569 (N16W23) decayed to plage.

A CME from the W limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery, first seen at 22/0248 UTC. Analysis indicated the event source was probably at or just beyond the W limb and the CME will likely be a miss to the west of Earths orbit. However, a WSA-Enlil model run was submitted and final results are pending.

An approximately 20 degree long filament centered near N22E58 disappeared from the disk between 22/0748-0944 UTC as reported by a USAF optical observatory. Initial analysis of SDO/AIA imagery indicated this may have been an eruptive event and we await updated coronagraph imagery to determine if a CME was associated with this DSF, and if so modelling will be accomplished to determine if there may be an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Despite the recent decay in Region 2567, solar activity is likely to continue at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on days one and two (22-23 Jul) due primarily to Region 2567s decreasing, but continued instability; and its activity trends. Solar activity is likely to remain low, with a decrease to a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Jul) as Region 2567 rotates to and beyond the W limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (22-23 Jul), with a likely increase to moderate to high levels late on day three (24 Jul) as electrons redistribute from the recent CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 Mev proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels all three days (22-24 Jul) due to the continued high flare potential of Region 2567 and its increasingly favorable heliographic position as it rotates towards and beyond the W limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued in a slightly enhanced state. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 375 to 425 km/s, with a few brief higher increases. The total IMF strength remained steady between 8 to 9 nT, while the Bz component turned from northward to predominantly a weak southward orientation shortly after 21/2100 UTC. The phi angle continued in a negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced most of the remainder of day one (22 Jul). Conditions are expected to weaken and slowly return to near-background levels on days two and three (23-24 Jul) under a more nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the remainder of day one (22 Jul) under the influence of the slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Days two and three (23-24 Jul) are anticipated to be mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period still likely, as near background conditions return.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation