[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low, with only B-class flares observed from beyond the west limb. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackout) during the remainder of day one (26 Jul), due primarily to Region 2567 (N05, L=167), which recently rotated beyond the west limb; and another active region that developed south of the solar equator and is also located just beyond the west limb. Activity is expected to remain very low, with only a slight chance for C-class flares on days two and three (27-28 Jul) as the two active regions rotate further beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to more nominal, background-like conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from about 450 km/s to near 350 km/s. Total IMF strength was variable and ranged primarily between 2 to 6 nT. The Bz component began the period in a pronounced period of southward direction until about 25/1615 UTC, after which it re-orientated and underwent weaker deviations afterwards. The phi angle experienced some oscillations between positive and negative sectors until approximately 25/2145 UTC, when it shifted into a positive sector. The phi angle deflected again into a negative sector at 26/0926 UTC for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Later on day one (26 Jul), a CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective and solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced. Enhanced conditions are expected to continue into days two and three (27-28 Jul) as additional CH HSSs keep the solar wind environment disturbed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field responded with an overall planetary response of active levels between 25/1200-1800 UTC, due primarily to the slightly enhanced solar wind environment and pronounced periods of favorable IMF orientation. Conditions became quiet afterwards.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions later on day one (26 Jul) as an anticipated CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Geomagnetic responses are expected to continue at primarily quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions on days two and three (27-28 Jul) as CH HSS effects continue.

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