[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A few B-class flares were observed originating from beyond the west limb early in the period - including the largest flare of the period, a B9 flare at 26/1535 UTC. There are no sunspots on the visible disk, and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the period (27-29 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels, with isolated periods at high levels over the next three days (27-29 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions. Solar wind speed ranged from about 320-360 km/s. Total IMF strength was primarily between 2 to 5 nT, while the Bz component was variable, with no pronounced southward deviations. The phi angle continued primarily in a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on day one (27 Jul) as a CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Enhanced conditions are expected to continue into days two and three (28-29 Jul) as CH HSS effects keep the solar wind environment enhanced.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for most of the remainder of day one (27 Jul). An isolated active period is expected late on day one, with a slight chance of G1 (Minor) storm conditions, as an anticipated CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions, are expected on days two and three (28-29 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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