[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 28 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low, with no flares observed. There were no numbered sunspots on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs noted in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (28-30 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a peak flux reached of 1,671 pfu at 27/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the remainder of day one (28 Jul) and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (29-30 Jul) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (28-30 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal until approximately 27/2330 UTC, when the environment became disturbed due to likely CIR influences, followed by further enhancements that appeared to be from anticipated CH HSS effects at about 28/0705 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from about 320 km/s to 375 km/s. Total IMF strength increased from 3 nT to nearly 10 nT due to CIR and CH HSS influences; while the Bz component became directed mainly southward. The phi angle was variable as it switched between negative and positive orientations.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced throughout day one (28 Jul) due to CH HSS influences. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to continue into day two (29 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. By day three (30 Jul), CH HSS effects are expected to wane as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet until the start of the 28 Jul UTC-day, when the enhanced solar wind environment, along with a favorable IMF orientation, caused unsettled to active levels of response.

Forecast: The remainder of day one (28 Jul) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance of another isolated active period, due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated period of active conditions, are expected on day two (29 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist, but weaken. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated period of active conditions, are expected on day three (30 Jul) as CH HSS effects continue, but wane.

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