[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. New Region 2570 (N10E52, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period but was stable and unproductive.

A filament eruption centered near N01E06 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 28/1620 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/2224 UTC but is not Earth-directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (29-31 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds steady increase from 370 km/s early in the period to a peak of 630 km/s at around 29/0900 UTC. Total field strength reached 17 nT late in the period but Bz remained mostly neutral throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under continued CH HSS influence through day one (29 Jul) followed by a decrease to near-background levels on days two and three (30-31 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (30 Jul) with mostly quiet conditions on day three (31 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.

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