[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only background flare activity observed this period. Region 2570 (N11E47, Bxo/beta) showed signs of decay late in the period and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The solar wind speed steadily decreased from an initial value near 600 km/s to around 475 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values were steady around 5 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels through late on day three (30 Jul-01 Aug) when the CME from 28 Jul is anticipated to arrive, causing an enhancement in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under waning CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (30 Jul) and mostly quiet on day two through late on day three (31 Jul-01 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. Active conditions are likely late on day three (31 Aug) due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Jul CME.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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