[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with no flare activity observed this period. Region 2570 (N10E31, Axx/alpha) was in decay throughout the period and remains the single active region on the visible disk. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (31 Jul-02 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,133 pfu observed at 30/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (31 Jul-01 Aug) before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (02 Aug) due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (31 Jul-02 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the return to an ambient solar wind environment. Solar wind speed decreased from initial values near 475 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s. Bt values varied between 1-5 nT and Bz briefly reached -4 nT mid-period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on day two through early on day three (01-02 Aug) due to the arrival of a CME from 28 Jul. The onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected midday on day three, further enhancing the solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 650 km/s to 750 km/s range are likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A measurements.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through day one and the majority of day two (31 Jul-01 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. By late on day two to early on day three (02 Aug), the arrival of the 28 Aug CME is expected followed by the onset of a CH HSS, which is expected to cause unsettled to G1-Minor geomagnetic storm levels with G2-Moderate levels likely.

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