[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Aug 01 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 01 0511 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 July 2016

Solar activity was very low throughout the period with the exception of a single C1 flare at 25/0909 UTC from departed Region 2567 (N05, L=166, class/area Dki/380 on 21 July). Region 2570 (N10E24, Axx/alpha) was the sole numbered sunspot for the majority of the period but was unimpressive and did not contribute any significant flaring. A 25 degree filament, centered near N01E06, was observed lifting off of the visible disk in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at 28/1620 UTC. ENLIL analysis showed an Earth-directed component with CME arrival expected early on 02 August.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 25, 28-29 July and high levels on 26-27 and 30-31 July.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 25 July due to residual influence from a weak transient that arrived at Earth on 24 July. This shock enhancement was likely associated with flare activity from 20 July. Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 26-27 July under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 28-29 July after the arrival of a CIR followed by a transition into a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds reached 600 km/s while total field (Bt) measurements were as high as 17 nT. Geomagnetic field activity returned to quiet conditions on 30-31 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 August - 27 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels from 01-04 August. Low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are expected from 05-19 August with the return of Regions 2565 and 2567. A return to very low levels is expected on 20-27 August.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 08, 5-15, 18-22, 25-27 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04-05, 10-11, 15-16, 24-25 August with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 03 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. A CME associated with the eruptive filament from 28 July is likely to arrive early on 02 August causing unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

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