[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 01 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. There are currently no active regions with sunspots on the visible disk and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (01-03 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,110 pfu observed at 31/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (01 Aug) before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (02-03 Aug) due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (01-03 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a background solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 400 km/s early in the period to around 360 km/s by the end of the period. Bt did not exceed 5 nT and Bz was primarily northward throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one or early on day two (01-02 Aug) due to the arrival of the 28 Jul CME. After midday on day two (02 Aug), the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to further enhance the solar wind parameters. This enhancement in the solar wind environment is expected to persist through day three (03 Aug). Solar wind speeds in the 650 km/s to 750 km/s range are likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A measurements.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the majority of day one (01 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. The arrival of a CME from 28 Jul is anticipated late on day one or early on day two (01-02 Aug), causing periods of active conditions. After midday on day two (02 Aug) the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely. G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on day three (03 Aug) as CH HSS influence persists.

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