[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 02 0030 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 02 0030 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Active Region 2570 (N10E13, Axx/Alpha) reemerged today as a quiet and inactive group. No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (02-04 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one (02 Aug) before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (03-04 Aug) due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (02-04 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 375 km/s early in the period to around 340 km/s by the end of the period. Bt did not exceed 5 nT and Bz was primarily northward throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (02 Aug) due to the possible arrival of a CME from 28 Jul. The slow moving CME is believed to be associated with a filament that disappeared from near center disk. After late on day two (03 Aug), the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to further enhance the solar wind parameters. This enhancement in the solar wind environment is expected to persist through day three (04 Aug). Solar wind speeds in the 650 km/s to 750 km/s range are likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A measurements and recurrence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The arrival of a CME from 28 Jul is anticipated late on day one (02 Aug), causing periods of active conditions. After midday, a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely. G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on day two (03 Aug) as CH HSS influence persists. Activity is expected to begin to wane on day three (04 Aug) to mostly active conditions.

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