[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 09 1345 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 09 1345 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a few C-class flares from Regions 2574 (N06E58, Cso/beta) and 2571 (N12W38, Dac/beta-gamma). The largest of the C-class flares was a C8 from Region 2474 at 09/0042 UTC. There are five total numbered regions on the solar disk, including two newly numbered today. New regions 2575 (N16E60, Cso/beta) and 2576 (S12E69, Hsx/alpha) were observed during their appearance on the east limb of the visible disk. Both new regions remained largely inactive. Two CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery exiting the West limb during the summary period, but neither is expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (09-11 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for the next three days (09-11 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was steady near 475 km/s for most of the period, then increased to near 650 km/s at 09/0940 UTC. Total field strength increased from 5-8 nT and the Bz component was variable. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect enhanced conditions throughout the forecast period (09-11 Aug) due to the influences of a combination of an equatorial CH HSS and a northern pole connected CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (09-10 Aug) as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS; with some likely contribution from an extension of the northern crown CH HSS, remain geoeffective. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on day three (11 Aug) due the waning influence of an extension of the northern polar CH HSS.

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