[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class flare activity observed. The largest flare during the period was a C8 from Region 2574 (N05E43, Cso/beta) at 09/2237 UTC.

Other activity included a filament eruption centered near N27E67 that occurred from 09/2335 to 10/0237 UTC. This event became visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 10/0348 UTC and was determined to not an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (10-12 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for the next three days (10-12 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed averaged near 625 km/s for most of the period. Total field strength gradually decreased from 8-4 nT and the Bz component was variable. The phi angle remained positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect enhanced, but waning, conditions throughout the forecast period (10-12 Aug) due to the waning influences of a combination of an equatorial CH HSS and a northern pole connected CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (10 Aug) as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS; with some likely contribution from an extension of the northern crown CH HSS, will remain geoeffective. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (11-12 Aug) due the waning influence of an extension of the northern polar CH HSS.

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