[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 12 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 11/1644 UTC from Region 2574 (N04E14, Cao/beta). Region 2574 displayed signs of slight decay and was the only producer of significant flare activity, providing multiple B-class flare events in addition to the C2 flare mentioned previously. Region 2577 (N03E26, Dso/beta) showed indications of rapid growth, increased areal coverage and penumbral development in both its leader and trailer sections. The remaining numbered sunspot groups showed an overall trend of decay. After additional analysis, the disappearing filament mentioned in the previous discussion product, centered near N25E08, did not contain any evidence of an Earth-directed component. There were no geoeffective CMEs detected in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain very low all three days (12-14 Aug) with a chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (12-14 Aug) in response to prolonged high speed solar wind impacts. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the continued influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. Wind speed declined from starting speeds of 600 km/s to period ending readings of approximately 500 km/s. Total field measurements were steady near 5 nT while the Bz component was negligible lacking major deviations into negative territory. Phi angle was predominately positive throughout the reporting period.

Forecast: Slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist on day one (12 Aug) until elevated wind speeds taper. Ambient conditions are expected for days two and three (13-14 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (12 Aug) as the high speed stream departs. A return to near-background solar wind speeds for days two and three (13-14 Aug) is expected to result in mostly quiet conditions.

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