[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 19 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. All numbered regions on the disk were either stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with only a slight chance for C-class flares during the forecast period (19-21 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (19-20 Aug) and increase to normal to high levels on day three (21 Aug) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a near-background environment. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component of the magnetic field was predominantly southward. Solar wind speeds were gradually decreasing, from a peak of near 400 km/s to near 350 km/s by the periods end. Phi was primarily oriented in the negative (towards the Sun) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: An enhancement in the solar wind parameters is anticipated on day one (19 Aug) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. The enhancement is expected to continue through day two (20 Aug) and display a decreasing trend through day three (21 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet until the onset of an anticipated CH HSS on day one (19 Aug), likely causing active conditions. Active conditions are likely to continue through day two (20 Aug) as CH HSS influences persist. Day three (21 Aug) will likely observed quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects subside.

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