[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a few background flares observed from Region 2578 (N09W01, Cro/beta). The region showed little change over the past 24 hours. Region 2576 (S11W77) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (20-22 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal levels on day one (20 Aug) in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity with normal to moderate levels expected on days two and three (21-22 Aug).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (20-22 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds were steady near 320-380 km/s, Bt ranged between 5-8 nT and Bz varied between +6 to -4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on day one through midday on day two (20-21 Aug) due to the effects of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Near-background solar wind parameters are expected late on day two through day three (21-22 Aug) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on day one (20 Aug) and unsettled levels on day two (21 Aug) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected on day three (22 Aug) as CH HSS influence diminishes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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