[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 24 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2579 (N11W01, Dao/beta) was the largest region on the disk. The region underwent a decaying trend through the period, loosing much of its umbral area. Region 2578 (N08W55, Cro/beta) also exhibited a trend of gradual decay. Region 2580 (S18E40, Hax/alpha) was primarily stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (24-26 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (24-25 Aug) and increase to moderate to high levels on day three (26 Aug) as a result of CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the transition of from a CIR into a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field trended upward to a peak of around 16 nT between 23/1800-24/0000 UTC before gradually decreasing towards 5 nT by the periods end. The Bz component has been primarily northward with several brief rotations southward observed earlier in the period. Solar wind speeds increased from 400 km/s at the beginning of the period to a peak of between 500-600 km/s after 24/0000 UTC. Phi was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) with a rotation into the positive sector between 23/1500-1900 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day one (24 Aug) as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue. Continued, but decreasing, CH HSS effects are likely to persist through days two and three (25-26 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels between 23/1800 - 24/0300 UTC in response to prolonged periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on day one (24 Aug). Active conditions on day two (25 Aug) are likely to give way to unsettled conditions on day three (26 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane.

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