[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 25 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 2581 (N11E42, Cro/beta) remained simple and inactive. Of the other three numbered regions on the visible, all were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class flares on day one (25 Aug) and a slight chance for on days two and three (26-27 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The 2 MeV electron flux to be at normal to moderate levels on day one and two (25-26 Aug) due to CH HSS effects. Day three (27 Aug) is likely to see an increase to moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic fields strength ranged from 4-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 500-550 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to gradually trend towards ambient conditions from their elevated states over the next two days (25-26 Aug). Near-background conditions are expected by day three (27 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active conditions early in the period, decreasing to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at quiet to unsettled levels over days one and two (25-26 Aug) under the influence of a waning CH HSS. Quiet conditions are to expected on day three (27 Aug) as an ambient solar wind regime returns.

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