[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with B-class activity observed from Region 2579 (N12W31, Cao/beta) and developing Region 2581 (N12E28, Cao/beta). Region 2579 exhibited some trailer spot decay while new Region 2581 underwent leader spot development. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for isolated C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,295 pfu observed at 25/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (26-28 Aug) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased through the period from initial speeds near 550 km/s to speeds approaching 450 km/s by periods end. Bt was steady between 5-6 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 5 nT through about 26/0130 UTC when it remained steady northward to +4 nT through the end-of-the-period. The phi angle was in a weakly negative sector orientation through about 25/2000 UTC before becoming variable between positive and negative sectors for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels on day one (26 Aug) and persist at background levels through late on day three (27-28 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime. A slight solar wind enhancement is likely late on day three (28 Aug) due to a solar sector boundary crossing.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet throughout the forecast period (26-28 Aug) with isolated periods of unsettled conditions likely late on day three (28 Aug).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation