[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2581 (N12E02, Cai/beta) was mostly stable throughout the period while Region 2580 (S18W12, Hrx/alpha) showed signs of minor decay. Region 2582 (N08W44, Dao/beta) exhibited area and spot growth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (28-30 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period, peaking at 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and early on day two (28-29 Aug) before decreasing to normal levels on day three (30 Aug) in response to enhanced geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 440 km/s to end-of-period values near 400 km/s. Bt was steady near 5 nT and Bz was predominately northward through about 28/0300 UTC, then began to slowly trend southward to about -3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative sector (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day one (28 Aug). A solar wind enhancement is expected after midday on day two through day three (29-30 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s are possible as this high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (28 Aug) under a background solar wind environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and three (29-30 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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