[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Aug 29 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 August 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels reached on 28 August due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 28/2128 UTC from Region 2583 (N13, L=023, class/area Dao/030 on 28 Aug). Regions 2579 (N12, L=034, class/area Dao/090 on 23 Aug) and 2581 (N12, L=337, class/area Cao/110 on 28 Aug) were the largest spot groups on the visible disk, but were in a decay phase as of 24 and 28 August, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 22 August, moderate levels on 23-24 August, and high levels from 25-28 August. The maximum flux reached 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1-minor storm levels during the period. The beginning of the period, solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speeds between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 22 August. By 23 August, total field increased to around 14 nT with the solar wind speed increasing to around 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. By midday on 24 August, total field had decreased to near 5 nT, however solar wind speeds remained elevated until late on 25 August when they began to decline. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1-minor storm levels on 23-24 August, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 25-27 August. Quiet conditions were observed on 28 August under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 24 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 31 August-12 September and again from 21-24 September due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 29 August-08 September, 13-14 September, 17 September, and 19-21 September with G1-minor storm levels likely on 29-30 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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