[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due to a pair C-class events; a C1/Sf observed at 29/1736 UTC from Region 2583 (N14W73, Cao/beta), and a C1 flare from a region just beyond the north east limb. Region 2583 exhibited overall decay in its trailer and intermediate spots. Region 2582 (N09W76, Cso/beta) displayed minor decay this period as well, as did Region 2581 (N11W26, Cao/beta). Region 2580 (S17W36, Cao/beta) was the only region to exhibit growth during the period, with regeneration in its intermediate and trailer spots. Several low-level B-class flares were observed during the period, mostly originating from an area of enhanced plage just rotating around the eastern limb onto the visible disk.

An approximately 19 degree long filament, centered near N25W34, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG H-alpha imagery disappearing from 29/1947-2341 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as soon as coronagraph imagery fills in to determine if there was an Earth-directed CME associated with the DSF, and any impacts, that might be associated with this CME.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (30 Aug - 01 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on days one through three (30 Aug - 01 Sep) in response to enhanced solar wind velocities from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment, likely associated with a CH HSS moving into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 km/s to just over 400 km/s by periods end. Total field remained steady between 5-10 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 8 nT, seeing a maximum southward deflection near -10 nT. Phi angle orientation was predominately positive, with an isolated oscillation to the negative sector observed from 29/2000-2100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become more enhanced as day one progresses, continuing through day three (30 Aug - 01 Sep) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s are anticipated as this high speed solar wind stream passes Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (30 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected on days two and three (31 Aug - 01 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues, but begins to slightly wane.

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