[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Aug 31 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Aug 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2583 (N14W87, Cao/beta) managed to produce a C1 flare at 30/2245 UTC as it approached the west limb. This region appeared to exhibit some growth during the period, though accurate analysis was made difficult due to foreshortening as it approached the limb. Recently numbered Region 2585 (N08E78, Cai/beta) produced the only other C-class flare, a C1 flare at 31/0819 UTC. This region continues to rotate around the east limb and into view. Region 2584 (S06E69, Cao/beta) was also numbered during the period, but was stable and inactive. The remaining numbered regions were stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for the next two days (31 Aug - 01 Sep). As the returning regions from around the east limb continue to progress onto the visible disk, an increase in solar x-ray background is anticipated, along with an increased likelihood for C-class flares on day three (02 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were at normal background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on days one through three (31 Aug - 02 Sep) in response to enhanced solar wind velocities from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 410 km/s, reached a peak of 485 km/s at 30/2316 UTC, before ending the summary period near 430 km/s. Total field remained steady between 5-10 nT, with the Bz component seeing a maximum southward deflection to near -10 nT. Phi angle orientation was predominately positive until around 31/0630 UTC when it rotated into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to see additional enhancements through day three (31 Aug - 02 Sep) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds around 500-550 km/s are anticipated as this high speed solar wind stream passes Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day one (31 Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are expected periodically on days two and three (01 - 02 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues, but begins to slowly wane.

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