[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 03 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was very low. Region 2585 (N08E37, Ekc/beta-gamma) continued to produce a few B-class flares during the period. Region 2581 (N13W86, Hsx/alpha) remained stable as it approached the western limb. Region 2586 (N10W27, Hrx/alpha) exhibited slight decay and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares for the next three days (03-05 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (03-05 Sep) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from around 650 km/s, but have remained steady near 700 km/s the majority of the period. Total field was also steady around 7 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 7 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (03-05 Sep) as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists. Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s are anticipated in association with the coronal hole effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to CH HSS effects. G2 (Moderate) storm levels were observed during the 03/0300-0600 UTC period.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on days one and two (03-04 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Day three (05 Sep) is expected to be predominately quiet to active.

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