[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 04 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was very low. Region 2585 (N08E23, Ekc/beta-gamma) was mainly inactive with slight decay of intermediate spots. Region 2587 (N10E36, Axx/alpha) was newly numbered. All remaining regions were stable alpha configurations. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares for the next three days (04-06 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 26,900 pfu observed at 04/0115 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Sep) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds have remained steady near 700 km/s the majority of the period. Total field was steady near 6 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day three (04-06 Sep) as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed during the 03/2100-2400 and 04/0300-0600 UTC periods.

Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the rest of the UTC day on day one (04 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (05 Sep). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (06 Sep) as CH HSS effects begin to diminish.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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