[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Sep 05 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 05 0405 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2016

Solar activity was at low levels from 29-31 Aug. Regions 2583 (N13, L=025, class/area Dao/130 on 29 Aug) and 2585 (N08, L=222, class/area Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) were responsible for the C-class activity. Activity dropped to very low levels for the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 29 Aug and 02-04 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 29-31 Aug with active conditions late on 30 Aug due to CH HSS effects. Mostly active to major storm conditions were observed on 01-03 Sep due to effects from an extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Active to minor storm levels prevailed on 04 Sep due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 September - 01 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high to very high levels on 05-12 Sep due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 13-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels are expected on 21-25 Sep and 29 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from anticipated recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05-06 Sep with minor storms expected early on 05 Sep as CH HSS effects continue. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07-08 Sep as effects begin to subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 09-18 Sep with isolated unsettled periods likely on 13, 14 and 17 Sep due to weak recurrent CH HSS events. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19-21 Sep with active periods possible on 19 Sep due to effects from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 22-25 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep followed by active to major storm levels from 26 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from the northern polar coronal hole extension.

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