[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B9/Sf at 04/1817 UTC from Region 2585 (N08E11, Ekc/beta). Minor decay was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2585.

A filament eruption was observed in H-alpha imagery beginning at approximately 05/0547 UTC centered near S40E08. The ejecta appeared to have a trajectory south of the ecliptic and will likely not have a geoeffective component. Further analysis will be conducted as soon as coronagraph imagery is available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares for the next three days (05-07 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 40,294 pfu observed at 04/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to very high levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Sep) due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slow weakening of the positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was in decline over the period from a maximum of 837 km/s observed at 04/1428 UTC to end of period values near 570 km/s. Total field was between 3 nT and 8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through days one and two (05-06 Sep) under the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. By day three (07 Sep), solar wind parameters are expected to relax as CH HSS influence slowly wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to continued CH HSS activity. An isolated G1 (Minor) storm level was observed during the 04/1800-2100 UTC period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the rest of the UTC day on day one (05 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (06 Sep) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day three (07 Sep) as coronal hole influence slowly diminishes.

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