[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 06 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2585 (N07W04, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest solar events of the period; a B3/Sf flare at 05/2146 UTC and a B4 event that was still in progress as of this discussion. Region 2585 exhibited slight growth in its intermediate spots, with mixed polarities developing between these spots and the trailer spots, but remained mostly inactive during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flaring likely and a slight chance for an M-Class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) event for the next three days (06-08 Sep). Region 2585 will be the likely source for any flare activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels with a peak flux of 56,842 pfu observed at 05/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high to very high levels for days one and two (06-07 Sep) due to persistent CH HSS influence, then slowly decrease to moderate to high levels by day three (08 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued slow weakening of the positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period near 580 km/s, reached a peak near 615 km/s, and ended the period just under 525 km/s. Total field fluctuated between 2 and 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT. Phi angle remained in a positive (away) sector throughout most of the period, with an isolated oscillation into the negative (towards) sector from 06/0514-0644 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through the remainder of day one (06 Sep) under the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to become less enhanced on days two and three (07-08 Sep) as CH HSS influence slowly wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions during the 05/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period, due to persistent CH HSS influence. Conditions then returned to mostly unsettled levels for the remainder of the summary period as CH HSS effects continued to slowly weaken.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated active period, for the remainder of day one (06 Sep) due to residual CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are then expected for days two and three (07-08 Sep) as coronal hole influence wanes.

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