[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2585 (N08W16, Eki/beta-gamma) had some growth in its intermediate spots and produced a few B-class flares, including a B6 flare at 07/1040 UTC, the largest flare of the period. Newly numbered Region 2588 (N11E01, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight growth in its trailer spots while showing signs of separation between the leader and trailer spots. Despite the overall changes, it remained inactive throughout the day. Region 2586 (N12W77, Hsx/alpha) had some reemergence of a few spots, but foreshortening hindered proper analysis of its magnetic structure. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with C-class flares likely and a slight chance of M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackout) flares for all three days (07-09 Sep) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2585.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a max flux of 23,395 pfu at 06/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on day one (07 Sep) due to continued CH HSS effects, but decrease to moderate to high levels on days two and three (08-09 Sep) as CH HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect weakening CH HSS influences. Total field strength ranged primarily from 4 to 6 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 4 nT, and solar wind speed varied between 450-550 km/s. The phi angle continued in a predominantly positive sector.

Forecast: Weakening CH HSS effects are expected on day one (07 Sep) and into day two (08 Sep) with solar wind speed anticipated to gradually decline. A return to more ambient background conditions is expected by day three (09 Sep) as the CH HSS rotates out of geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period from 06/1800-2100 UTC, due to continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one and into day two (07-08 Sep) due to enhanced, but weakening CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels on day three (09 Sep) as the CH HSS rotates out of geoeffective position.

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