[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B8 flare at 08/0447 UTC from Region 2585 (N08W31, Eki/beta-gamma). This region also produced several low-level B-class flares, and exhibited additional growth and consolidation in its intermediate spots. Region 2588 (N12W12, Cso/beta) underwent decay in both its leader and trailer spots, and remained quiescent throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance for an M-class event (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on all three days of the forecast period (08-10 Sep), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2585.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a max flux of 25,205 pfu at 07/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (08-10 Sep) as CH HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect persistent, yet weakening CH HSS influences. Wind speed displayed a slight increase during the first half of the reporting period, reaching a maximum speed near 530 km/s, before decreasing back to near 430 km/s by periods end. Total field strength fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a primarily positive orientation, but did oscillate between the positive and negative sectors throughout the period.

Forecast: Weakening CH HSS effects are expected to continue on day one (08 Sep) as solar wind parameters to continue weaken. A return to ambient conditions is expected for days two and three (09-10 Sep) as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period, likely associated with sustained periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with possible isolated active conditions early on day one (08 Sep) as CH HSS effects continue to decrease. Days two and three (09-10 Sep) are expected to be mostly quiet after a return to background solar wind conditions.

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