[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Sep 12 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels on 05-11 Sep. Region 2591 (N05, L=144, Cro/025 on 11 Sep) produced a B9.6 flare at 10/1920 UTC, the strongest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 05 Sep and high levels from 06-11 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The largest flux value of the period was 56,842 pfu observed at 05/1815 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 05 Sep due to a period of prolonged southward Bz during the waning phase of a CH HSS. Solar wind speed continued to decline over the period from a high near 600 km/s to 340 km/s by the end of the period. Activity decreased to quiet to active conditions on 06 Sep and to quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 Sep. A final increase to quiet to active conditions was observed on 08 Sep before quiet conditions dominated for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 September - 08 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels expected on 21-25 Sep, 29 Sep - 01 Oct, and 06-08 Oct. Very high levels are likely between 02-05 Oct. High and very high levels are anticipated to result from recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12 Sep as a solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated to transition into a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely over 13-14 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep under an ambient solar wind environment. 17-21 Sep will likely to be at quiet to active conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the near-Earth environment. Quiet conditions are again expected from 22-25 Sep. 26-27 Sep are likely to be at unsettled to active conditions from a small, positive polarity, CH HSS. 28-30 Sep are likely to see field active range from unsettled to major storm levels from a strong, positive polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, unsettled to minor storm levels are likely on 01 Oct and quiet to active levels are expected from 02-05 Oct. Quiet conditions are expected to return over 06-08 Oct under a nominal solar wind regime.

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