[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the period. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 2585 (N08W85, Eao/beta), 2589 (N15W35, Cso/beta), and 2591 (N05W05, Cro/beta). New flux emergence was observed in Region 2590 (N08W53, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares throughout the forecast period (12-14 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater the 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 11,500 pfu observed at 11/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (12-14 Sep) due to electron redistribution. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated possible CIR activity preceding a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 370 km/s to near 315 km/s over the period, however total field increased from 5 nT to 13 nT while the Bz component remained mostly positive after 12/0000 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from a mostly positive (away) sector to a negative (towards) one between 11/1900 UTC and 12/0920 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced through the rest of the UTC day on day one and continue through day two (12-13 Sep) under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. A slow return to nominal levels is expected by day three (14 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12-13 Sep) under the effects of negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day three (14 Sep) as CH HSS influence slowly diminishes.

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