[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 13 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only low-level B-class flare activity observed during the reporting period. Region 2590 (N08W68, Axx/alpha) lost its trailer and was reported as a unipolar sunspot. Regions 2589 (N15W48, Cso/beta) and 2591 (N05W17, Bxo/beta) were stable and relatively inactive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (13-15 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater the 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 5,910 pfu observed at 12/2205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels for the forecast period (13-15 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind was steady near 300 km/s. Total field values ranged from 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component remained mostly southward near -4 nT for most of the summary period. Phi angle was mostly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal conditions for days one through three (13-15 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13-14 Sep) and mostly quiet conditions on day three (15 Sep).

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