[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Sep 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Sep 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with a few B-class flares observed from Regions 2593 (N07W78, Bxo/beta) and 2597 (S13W19, Dsi/beta-gamma). Region 2593 showed overall decay as it neared the west limb. Region 2597 exhibited decay and consolidation within its intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (25-27 Sep).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 341 pfu observed at 24/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (25-26 Sep) of the forecast period. Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (27 Sep) due to an enhanced solar wind environment from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were generally at background levels. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 3 - 11 nT. The Bz component exhibited a sustained period of southward Bz to -6 nT from 24/1700 UTC to 25/0300 UTC followed by another southward excursion to -10 Bz from 25/0830 UTC to 25/1030 UTC. Solar wind speeds were fairly steady at an average of about 370 km/s. Phi was oriented in a negative sector with a brief positive orientation late in the period. Forecast: The solar wind environment is likely to undergo a minor enhancement in density and total field strength late on day one (25 Sep) from an anticipated SSBC. A further enhancement is likely on day two (26 Sep) from the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS. Influence from the CH HSS in likely to subside through day three (27 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with the exception of an isolated active period followed by an isolated minor storm (G1-minor) period during the interval 25/0000-0600 UTC. This enhancement was due to a period of sustained southward Bz from 24/1700 UTC to 25/0300 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (25 Sep) with an anticipated SSBC is expected late on day one. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on days two and three (26-27 Sep) due to the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS that will enhance the near-Earth space environment.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation