[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Sep 26 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 26 0103 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 September 2016

Solar activity reached low levels this period due to isolated C-class flare activity. Region 2595 (N11, L=099, class/area=Dao/120 on 20 Sep) was the most productive region this period. In addition to multiple low-level C-class flares Region 2595 produced the largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 22/0547 UTC. Region 2597 (S13, L=349, class/area=Dsc/120 on 24 Sep) developed late in the week and produced an isolated C1 flare at 25/1914 UTC in addition to numerous B-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21 Sep, moderate levels on 22-23 Sep, and was at normal levels throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Sep with active levels observed on 21 Sep in response to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed again on 25 Sep due to prolonged periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field orientation. Quiet conditions were observed on 22-24 Sep and quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 19 Sep under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September - 22 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period with a chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be very high on 02 Oct with high levels expected on 29 Sep-01 Oct, 03-11 Oct, and 18 Oct following periods of an enhanced solar wind environment associated with coronal hole high speed stream influence. Normal and normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 26 Sep, 01-02 Oct, and 17 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind streams. Active conditions are expected on 27 Sep, 03 Oct, and 18 Oct with generally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.

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