[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspot regions were observed this period. A filament centered near N25E20 was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 01/0125 UTC. An associated CME was first seen in C2 coronagraph imagery at 01/0236 UTC and analysis is underway to determine if this event has an Earth-directed component. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight change for C-class flare activity, over the next three days (01-03 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 74,718 pfu observed at 30/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV flux is expected to continue at high to very high flux levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the weakening influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period. Total magnetic field strength values were steady near 5 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed generally decreased from initial values near 650 km/s to end-of-period values near 530 km/s. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a slow return to near-background levels over the next three days (01-03 Oct) as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime returns.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels this period due to waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (01 Oct) and active levels on days two and three (02-03 Oct) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation