[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 02 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. New Region 2598 (N11E61, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period and is the only sunspot region on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight change for C-class flares, over the next three days (02-04 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux value of 81,035 pfu at 01/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high to very high levels over the next three days (02-04 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength varied between 3-7 nT and Bz briefly reached -7 nT early in the period. Solar wind speeds meandered between 495-582 km/s and the phi angle remained mostly steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decline over the next three days (02-04 Oct) as CH HSS influence diminishes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach isolated active periods over the next three days (02-04 Oct) as CH HSS influence continues to subside and a nominal solar wind regime returns.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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