[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2598 (N13E50, Cso/beta) underwent minor development this period and remains the only sunspot region on the visible disk.

A small filament eruption centered near N20E60 was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning at 02/2030 UTC, but appeared to be mostly reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (03-05 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 29,556 pfu at 02/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (03-05 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected continued, but weakening CH HSS influence this period. Total magnetic field strength was steady near 5 nT and the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds meandered between 470-567 km/s and the phi angle was mostly steady in a positive solar sector orientation this period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to continue a slow decrease to near-background levels over the next three days (03-05 Oct) as CH HSS influence weakens and subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed between 02/1800-2100 UTC due to continued, but weakening CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on days one and two (03-04 Oct) due to weakening CH HSS influence and the possible glancing-blow arrival of a CME from 01 Oct. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected on day three (05 Oct).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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