[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2598 (N13E37, Cao/beta) developed a few more intermediate spots, continued to grow its leader spots, and produced a B6 flare at 03/0409 UTC. Region 2599 (S15E64, Cho/beta) continued to rotate onto the visible disk and remained inactive, and was still too close to the limb to achieve an accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (04-06 Oct) due primarily to continued growth of Region 2598 and the development of new Region 2599.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a max flux of 32,138 pfu at 03/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on day one (04 Oct) and decrease to moderate to high levels on days two and three (05-06 Oct) due to electron redistribution effects associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected enhanced conditions due to combined effects from a positive polarity CH HSS and the arrival of an anticipated weak CME. Solar wind speed began the period near 480 km/s, but saw a few increases over the period, ending at near 560 km/s. Total IMF strength fluctuated between 3 to 7 nT, eventually reaching 10 nT at the end of the period. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT for the first half of the period, but remained in a mostly southward orientation after 03/2230 UTC, seeing a maximum southward deflection near -7 nT. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive sector (away from Sun), with a few brief deflections into a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (04 Oct) as CH HSS effects, combined with weak CME effects, persist but weaken throughout the day. Elevated conditions should begin to taper off through the day on day two (05 Oct) and return to nearly background conditions by day three (06 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with an isolated period of G1-Minor storm conditions, due to combined waning CH HSS effects and the likely arrival of the anticipated weak, glancing blow CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the remainder of day one (04 Oct) as combined effects from a waning CH HSS and a weak glancing blow CME gradually decrease. CH HSS effects are expected to persist, but weaken on day two (05 Oct), returning the field to quiet to unsettled levels. Day three (06 Oct) is expected to see a return to overall quiet conditions.

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