[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2598 (N13E23, Dai/beta) exhibited consolidation and slight growth in its trailer spot area, and produced a couple of low-level B-class flares. Region 2599 (S15E52, Cko/beta) rotated further onto the visible disk, revealing a few spots in the trailing, negative polarity field. Despite its size, the region remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (05-07 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, with a peak flux of 3,516 pfu at 04/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (05-07 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a less enhanced solar environment under continued waning CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed averaged near 530 km/s, but did reach a peak speed near 600 km/s early in the period. Total IMF strength began the period near 10 nT before gradually decreasing to near 3 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component fluctuated between -6 nT and 8 nT at the beginning of the period before settling down to range between +/- 3 nT at the end of the period. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from Sun), but experienced a few oscillations into a negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind speeds are expected to maintain a gradual decrease on day one (05 Oct) as the CH HSS influence subsides. The CH HSS is expected to rotate out of a geoeffective position on day two (06 Oct) with solar wind speeds expected to decrease to ambient, background conditions that should continue through day three (07 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active levels, likely due to combined effects from waning CH HSS influence and a weak transient passing near Earth.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (05 Oct), with a possible isolated active period early in the forecast period, under waning CH HSS effects. Days two and three (06-07 Oct) are expected to be primarily quiet under the more ambient background like solar wind regime.

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