[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2598 (N14W03, Dai/beta) underwent minor decay in its intermediate and trailer spot areas while Region 2599 (S14E25, Cko/beta) developed minor trailer spots this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (07-09 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,288 pfu observed at 06/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (07-09 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime this period. Total magnetic field strength values varied between 1-7 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speeds meandered around 450 km/s throughout the period and the phi angle was mostly steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (07-09 Oct) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain generally quiet over the next three days (07-09 Oct).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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