[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. Region 2598 (N14W17, Dai/beta) exhibited minor development in its intermediate spot area while the remaining two active regions were stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (08-10 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,774 pfu observed at 07/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (08-10 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Total field strength values varied between 2-7 nT and solar wind speeds ranged between 405-460 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward at -5 nT between 08/0130-0545 UTC, causing a weak disturbance in the Earths magnetic field. The phi angle was generally steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels over the next three days (08-10 Oct) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed between 08/0300-0600 UTC. The active period was attributed to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the remainder of day one through day three (08-10 Oct) under a background solar wind environment.

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