[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 09 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flares were observed this period. Region 2599 (S25W03, Cko/beta) underwent minor development in its trailer spot area while the remaining two active regions were mostly stable throughout the period.

A filament eruption centered near N38E40 was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 08/1500-1700 UTC. An associated asymmetric, partial-halo CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 09/0048 UTC. Analysis of this event is underway.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (09-11 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,840 pfu at 08/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels over the next three days (09-11 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Total field strength values were steady near 3-5 nT, Bz varied between +3 nT and -5 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 430 km/s to around 385 km/s by the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (09-11 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over the next three days (09-11 Oct).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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