[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was reached low levels with a C1 flare observed at 12/1156 UTC from Region 2599 (S14W35, Cko/beta). All four of the numbered regions coming into the reporting period remained stable. New Region 2602 (N07E69, Bxo/beta) was numbered and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (12-14 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels for day one (12 Oct). By day two (13 Oct), flux levels are expected to decrease normal to moderate levels due to the arrival of the 09 Oct CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 375 km/s and 410 km/s. Total field ranged from 4 to 6 nT with the Bz component varying between +5 nT and -4 nT. Phi angle was in a negative (towards) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels through midday on day two (12-13 Oct). By mid to late on day two, the 09 Oct CME is expected to slightly enhance solar wind parameters through the period. Only a modest velocity increase is anticipated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for day one (12 Oct) and through mid-day on day two (13 Oct). By mid to late day two, the 09 Oct CME is expected to become geoeffective causing active to G1-Minor storm levels for days two and three (13-14 Oct).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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