[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2598 (N15W57, Cai/beta) and 2599 (S15W27, Cko/beta) were both stable and lacked significant activity. Region 2601 (N06W63, Cro/beta) was numbered this period and showed slight growth in overall spot count, but was inactive.

A CME was observed off the south east limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 11/0248 UTC. Initial analysis concluded that the ejection did not originate from the Earthward facing side of the disk. Further forecaster analysis will occur as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (11-13 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,646 pfu observed at 10/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (11-13 Oct). By late on day three, flux levels are expected to decrease normal to moderate levels due to the arrival of the 09 Oct CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed between 375 km/s and 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 4 to 6 nT with the Bz component between +5 nT and -5 nT. A solar sector boundary crossing from positive (away) to a negative (towards) sector occurred at approximately 10/1808 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels through midday on day three (11-13 Oct). By mid to late on day three, the 09 Oct CME is expected to enhance solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through mid-day on day three (11-13 Oct). By mid to late day three, the 09 Oct CME is expected to become geoeffective causing active to G1-Minor storm levels.

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