[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. All three of the numbered regions remained stable and produced only low-level B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (13-15 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, with a peak flux of 767 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels for days one through three (13-15 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of the anticipated CME from 09 Oct. The CME appeared to pass L1 (confirmed in both ACE and DSCOVR) at 12/2121 UTC, eventually arriving at Earth as reflected by a 33 nT deviation at the Fredericksburg magnetometer at 12/2214 UTC. Wind speeds averaged between 425-450 km/s. After near 13/0530 UTC, conditions became more enhanced as Total field increased from near 5 nT to 20 nT while the Bz component averaged near -18 nT for the last 6 hours of the reporting period. Phi angle switched from a negative sector to a neutral orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to show continued enhancements from the 09 Oct CME through days one and two (13-14 Oct). On day three (15 Oct), an additional enhancement is expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1-Minor storm levels during the 06-09 UTC synoptic period due to effects from the 09 Oct CME.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1-Minor storm levels mid through late on day one (13 Oct) due to effects from the 09 Oct CME. G2-moderate conditions are possible during the first few hours of day two (14 Oct), before settling back to G1 or active conditions. Day three (15 Oct) is anticipated to see a return to mostly active conditions, despite the early onset of a CIR from a CH HSS.

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