[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Oct 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Oct 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Departed Region 2599 (S15, L=146) produced the largest event of the period; a B7 flare observed at 16/1135 UTC. Region 2600 (N11W55, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. Region 2602 (N06E08, Cao/beta) was quiet, but exhibited intermediate spot decay and elongation along its E/W axis. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (16-18 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 4,117 pfu observed at 15/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (16 Oct). Particle redistribution, resulting from the arrival of a recurrent CH HSS, is expected to decrease flux levels into the normal to moderate range for days two and three (17-18 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of residual CME effects followed by a transition into a weak, isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were variable between about 475-550 km/s until 16/0500 UTC when an increase to near 700 km/s was observed. Total field (Bt) ranged between 6-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +7 nT to -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions should remain enhanced until mid to late on day one (16 Oct) and into the early hours of day two (17 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity, polar-connected CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with G1 (Minor) conditions likely on days one and two (16-17 Oct) due to the aforementioned arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity, polar-connected CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three as CH HSS effects taper off.

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