Re: [Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 18 1230 UTC

["Billy W. Cox Jr." <aa4nu@comcast.net>]

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On December 18, 2017, at 2:07 PM, nw7us@sunspotwatch.com wrote:

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (18-20 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 2,658 pfu observed at 18/0835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (18-20 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds averaged about 610 km/s through the period with a maximum speed of 671 km/s observed at 18/0329 UTC. Total field (Bt) achieved a maximum of near 11 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-8 nT. Phi was oriented in a positive solar sector throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at elevated levels for the duration of the forecast period (18-20 Dec). An additional enhancement is possible late on day two (19 Dec) due to glancing blow impacts from the 15 Dec CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on days one and two (18-19 Dec) under persistent CH HSS effects. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day three (20 Dec) due to combined influence from residual CH HSS effects and potential glancing blow impact from the 15 Dec CME.

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