[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (20-22 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels from 20 Dec-22 Dec, due to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds gradually declined from around 525 km/s to less than 450 km/s. Total field (Bt) achieved a maximum of 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +3/-4 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in a positive solar sector throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at slightly elevated levels for the duration of the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels 20-21 Dec, despite lingering CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Dec due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing from a positive phi angle to a negative orientation.

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