[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2017 Dec 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Dec 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2692 (N18W17, Eao/beta) exhibited gradual decry throughout the region. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (25-27 Dec) with a slight chance for C-class activity.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on day one (25 Dec) and reach high levels on days two and three (26-27 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated enhancement from a negative polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength quickly decreased from a peak of 14 nT at the beginning of the reporting period to a steady 4-7 nT through 25/1200 UTC. Bz was not observed far southward for a significant period of time. Solar wind speeds increased to a brief peak speed of around 600 km/s at 24/1555 UTC before entering a gradual decline to roughly 475 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at enhanced levels on day one (25 Dec) due to influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. A trend towards background levels is expected over days two and three (26-27 Dec).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec) due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (26 Dec) as CH HSS effects begin to subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (27 Dec).

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