[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Jan 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Jan 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2693 (N20W72, Axx/alpha) was steady and unproductive throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the forecast period (07-09 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels through days one and two (07-08 Jan), with moderate to high levels likely on day three (09 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated ambient background conditions. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 300 km/s to end-of-period values approaching 280 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +/-2 nT. Phi angle orientation was in a steady negative sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through late on day one (07 Jan). By late on 07 Jan through day two (08 Jan), solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A gradual return to nominal levels is expected through day three (09 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to prevail through late on day one (07 Jan). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected late on 07 Jan, with quiet to active levels expected on day two (08 Jan), due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on day three (09 Jan) as CH HSS effects wane.

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